Generated at
06/02/2026, 11:12 AM EDT
Probability Board
All-Team Odds
All 48 teams on one board: contenders, long shots, and daily Monte Carlo movement. Odds update every day at 00:00 ET, and locked results feed the next simulation.
33
46
72
All Teams
Full 48-team odds
Sorted by title probability. The bar shows championship odds, not inflated confidence; the longer it gets, the more the model is willing to take the blame first.
| # | Team | Group | Confederation | Main path | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ๐ซ๐ทFranceFRA | I | UEFA | 1st68.1% | 68.1% | 22.6% | 6.1% | 96.8% | 80.8% | 62.6% | 46.0% | 29.9% | 19.2% | โ 19.2 |
| 2 | ๐ช๐ธSpainESP | H | UEFA | 1st67.7% | 67.7% | 23.9% | 5.6% | 97.2% | 72.5% | 54.1% | 41.6% | 27.7% | 17.6% | โ 17.6 |
| 3 | ๐ฆ๐ทArgentinaARG | J | CONMEBOL | 1st72.9% | 72.9% | 19.0% | 5.4% | 97.4% | 70.1% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 28.2% | 17.3% | โ 17.3 |
| 4 | ๐ดEnglandENG | L | UEFA | 1st57.9% | 57.9% | 29.1% | 8.5% | 95.6% | 73.5% | 51.7% | 33.8% | 19.8% | 10.7% | โ 10.7 |
| 5 | ๐ต๐นPortugalPOR | K | UEFA | 1st54.2% | 54.2% | 30.6% | 9.2% | 94.0% | 62.1% | 39.9% | 20.7% | 10.4% | 4.6% | โ 4.6 |
| 6 | ๐ง๐ทBrazilBRA | C | CONMEBOL | 1st46.6% | 46.6% | 36.4% | 10.9% | 93.9% | 59.4% | 39.1% | 20.8% | 10.0% | 4.4% | โ 4.4 |
| 7 | ๐ฒ๐ฆMoroccoMAR | C | CAF | 1st44.6% | 44.6% | 37.7% | 11.2% | 93.5% | 58.2% | 38.1% | 19.7% | 9.4% | 4.1% | โ 4.1 |
| 8 | ๐ณ๐ฑNetherlandsNED | F | UEFA | 1st56.1% | 56.1% | 27.7% | 9.6% | 93.4% | 54.2% | 37.4% | 18.7% | 8.9% | 4.0% | โ 4.0 |
| 9 | ๐ง๐ชBelgiumBEL | G | UEFA | 1st55.3% | 55.3% | 27.8% | 11.3% | 94.3% | 67.2% | 39.6% | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.3% | โ 3.3 |
| 10 | ๐ฉ๐ชGermanyGER | E | UEFA | 1st57.4% | 57.4% | 26.8% | 10.5% | 94.8% | 65.3% | 30.1% | 15.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | โ 2.7 |
| 11 | ๐ญ๐ทCroatiaCRO | L | UEFA | 2nd42.2% | 32.3% | 42.2% | 15.4% | 89.8% | 55.4% | 29.5% | 14.9% | 6.3% | 2.3% | โ 2.3 |
| 12 | ๐ธ๐ณSenegalSEN | I | CAF | 2nd43.4% | 22.0% | 43.4% | 17.5% | 82.9% | 51.5% | 25.9% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | โ 1.5 |
| 13 | ๐จ๐ดColombiaCOL | K | CONMEBOL | 2nd39.5% | 35.3% | 39.5% | 13.7% | 88.5% | 47.8% | 24.9% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 1.4% | โ 1.4 |
| 14 | ๐ฒ๐ฝMexicoMEX | A | CONCACAF | 1st52.7% | 52.7% | 27.7% | 11.4% | 91.8% | 60.5% | 25.8% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% | โ 1.3 |
| 15 | ๐บ๐ธUSAUSA | D | CONCACAF | 1st43.4% | 43.4% | 27.6% | 14.7% | 85.7% | 51.4% | 23.5% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | โ 1.1 |
| 16 | ๐บ๐พUruguayURU | H | CONMEBOL | 2nd49.3% | 25.3% | 49.3% | 13.9% | 88.6% | 38.3% | 19.6% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 1.00% | โ 1.0 |
| 17 | ๐ฏ๐ตJapanJPN | F | AFC | 2nd37.3% | 29.9% | 37.3% | 16.0% | 83.3% | 36.6% | 19.1% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.73% | โ 0.7 |
| 18 | ๐จ๐ญSwitzerlandSUI | B | UEFA | 1st53.8% | 53.8% | 27.3% | 11.1% | 92.1% | 55.0% | 23.1% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 0.70% | โ 0.7 |
| 19 | ๐ฎ๐ทIR IranIRN | G | AFC | 2nd35.8% | 26.0% | 35.8% | 22.6% | 84.4% | 45.0% | 17.1% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.38% | โ 0.4 |
| 20 | ๐ช๐จEcuadorECU | E | CONMEBOL | 2nd36.6% | 25.0% | 36.6% | 21.6% | 83.1% | 38.2% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.22% | โ 0.2 |
| 21 | ๐น๐ทTรผrkiyeTUR | D | UEFA | 2nd27.8% | 24.6% | 27.8% | 19.8% | 72.3% | 33.6% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 0.97% | 0.22% | โ 0.2 |
| 22 | ๐ฐ๐ทKorea RepublicKOR | A | AFC | 2nd33.7% | 27.8% | 33.7% | 18.1% | 79.6% | 41.9% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 0.95% | 0.22% | โ 0.2 |
| 23 | ๐ฆ๐นAustriaAUT | J | UEFA | 2nd37.4% | 13.5% | 37.4% | 22.4% | 73.4% | 24.7% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.81% | 0.18% | โ 0.2 |
| 24 | ๐ช๐ฌEgyptEGY | G | CAF | 2nd30.6% | 17.3% | 30.6% | 28.1% | 75.9% | 33.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 0.62% | 0.14% | โ 0.1 |
| 25 | ๐ฆ๐บAustraliaAUS | D | AFC | 2nd26.7% | 21.6% | 26.7% | 19.8% | 68.2% | 29.7% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 0.67% | 0.14% | โ 0.1 |
| 26 | ๐จ๐ฆCanadaCAN | B | CONCACAF | 2nd34.7% | 28.6% | 34.7% | 17.7% | 81.1% | 36.9% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 0.61% | 0.12% | โ 0.1 |
| 27 | ๐ฉ๐ฟAlgeriaALG | J | CAF | 2nd32.4% | 11.0% | 32.4% | 23.8% | 67.1% | 20.9% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 0.51% | 0.10% | โ 0.1 |
| 28 | ๐จ๐ฎCรดte d'IvoireCIV | E | CAF | 2nd29.7% | 15.6% | 29.7% | 27.4% | 72.7% | 26.4% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 0.32% | 0.07% | โ 0.1 |
| 29 | ๐ต๐ฆPanamaPAN | L | CONCACAF | 3rd30.2% | 8.1% | 21.7% | 30.2% | 60.1% | 19.8% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 0.33% | 0.07% | โ 0.1 |
| 30 | ๐ณ๐ดNorwayNOR | I | UEFA | 3rd24.3% | 7.0% | 22.2% | 24.3% | 53.4% | 21.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | 0.38% | 0.06% | โ 0.1 |
| 31 | ๐จ๐ฟCzechiaCZE | A | UEFA | 2nd23.8% | 13.2% | 23.8% | 22.3% | 59.3% | 22.9% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 0.20% | 0.03% | โ 0.0 |
| 32 | ๐ดScotlandSCO | C | UEFA | 3rd31.1% | 7.1% | 19.5% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 14.8% | 4.4% | 0.89% | 0.15% | 0.03% | โ 0.0 |
| 33 | ๐ต๐พParaguayPAR | D | CONMEBOL | 3rd17.9% | 10.4% | 17.8% | 17.9% | 46.2% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 0.71% | 0.14% | 0.02% | โ 0.0 |
| 34 | ๐ธ๐ชSwedenSWE | F | UEFA | 3rd21.6% | 8.0% | 19.5% | 21.6% | 49.1% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 0.81% | 0.14% | 0.02% | โ 0.0 |
| 35 | ๐น๐ณTunisiaTUN | F | CAF | 3rd18.7% | 6.0% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 40.2% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.01% | โ 0.0 |
| 36 | ๐บ๐ฟUzbekistanUZB | K | AFC | 3rd19.6% | 4.8% | 14.2% | 19.6% | 38.6% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | โ 0.0 |
| 37 | ๐จ๐ฉCongo DRCOD | K | CAF | 3rd21.3% | 5.7% | 15.7% | 21.3% | 42.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 0.47% | 0.07% | 0.01% | โ 0.0 |
| 38 | ๐ฎ๐ถIraqIRQ | I | AFC | 3rd15.3% | 2.9% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 30.1% | 8.1% | 1.7% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.01% | โ 0.0 |
| 39 | ๐ธ๐ฆSaudi ArabiaKSA | H | AFC | 3rd22.8% | 4.2% | 15.6% | 22.8% | 42.6% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.01% | โ 0.0 |
| 40 | ๐ฟ๐ฆSouth AfricaRSA | A | CAF | 3rd17.6% | 6.4% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 38.8% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% | โ 0.0 |
| 41 | ๐ถ๐ฆQatarQAT | B | AFC | 2nd22.9% | 11.6% | 22.9% | 22.5% | 57.0% | 17.4% | 3.4% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.01% | โ 0.0 |
| 42 | ๐ฏ๐ดJordanJOR | J | AFC | 3rd13.3% | 2.6% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 27.0% | 4.8% | 0.85% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | โ 0.0 |
| 43 | ๐ง๐ฆBosnia and HerzegovinaBIH | B | UEFA | 3rd17.5% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 17.5% | 38.5% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% | โ 0.0 |
| 44 | ๐จ๐ผCuraรงaoCUW | E | CONCACAF | 3rd10.6% | 2.0% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 19.5% | 2.8% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | โ 0.0 |
| 45 | ๐ฌ๐ญGhanaGHA | L | CAF | 3rd11.7% | 1.7% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 20.3% | 3.1% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | โ 0.0 |
| 46 | ๐ญ๐นHaitiHAI | C | CONCACAF | 3rd11.5% | 1.7% | 6.4% | 11.5% | 19.6% | 2.5% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | โ 0.0 |
| 47 | ๐จ๐ปCabo VerdeCPV | H | CAF | 3rd17.3% | 2.8% | 11.2% | 17.3% | 31.2% | 4.9% | 0.88% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | โ |
| 48 | ๐ณ๐ฟNew ZealandNZL | G | OFC | 3rd9.6% | 1.5% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | โ |