生成时间
07/27/2026, 12:00 AM EDT
Probability Board
48 支球队同屏排队:谁像冠军相,谁是快乐陪跑,谁只差一场神仙球就能把模型脸打歪。概率每天 00:00 ET 更新,赛果锁定后进入下一版模拟。
DAY DAY WORLD CUP · 2026-07-27 00:00 ET
最新模型把 104 场从小组赛比分一路填到预测冠军。淡绿色是实际赛果,黑色是模型预测,绿色队名代表席位已经确定。
预测
按最新版模拟里的小组第一、第二、第三出线概率,汇总出每个小组的预测座次。
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇲🇽Mexico | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇿🇦South Africa | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇨🇿Czechia | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| 4 | 🇰🇷Korea Republic | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇨🇦Canada | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇶🇦Qatar | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇧🇷Brazil | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇲🇦Morocco | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇭🇹Haiti | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| 4 | 🏴Scotland | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇺🇸USA | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇦🇺Australia | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇹🇷Türkiye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇩🇪Germany | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇯🇵Japan | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇸🇪Sweden | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇧🇪Belgium | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇪🇬Egypt | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇮🇷IR Iran | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| 4 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸Spain | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇨🇻Cabo Verde | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| 4 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇫🇷France | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇳🇴Norway | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇸🇳Senegal | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇮🇶Iraq | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇦🇷Argentina | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇦🇹Austria | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇩🇿Algeria | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇯🇴Jordan | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇨🇴Colombia | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇵🇹Portugal | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇨🇩Congo DR | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| # | 球队 | 前二 | 第三出线 | 期望 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🏴England | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇭🇷Croatia | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇬🇭Ghana | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇵🇦Panama | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Best Thirds
最可能通过第三名路径晋级的球队队列。前 8 名就是当前模型里的补票区。
All Teams
按夺冠概率排序。横条是冠军概率,不是膨胀的信心;它越长,说明模型越愿意把锅先背给这队。
| # | 球队 | 组 | 洲际 | 主路线 | 第1 | 第2 | 第3 | 进32 | 进16 | 进8 | 进4 | 决赛 | 夺冠 | 变化 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸SpainESP | H | UEFA | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | → |
| 2 | 🇩🇿AlgeriaALG | J | CAF | 第3100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 3 | 🇦🇷ArgentinaARG | J | CONMEBOL | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | → |
| 4 | 🇦🇺AustraliaAUS | D | AFC | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 5 | 🇦🇹AustriaAUT | J | UEFA | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 6 | 🇧🇪BelgiumBEL | G | UEFA | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 7 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaBIH | B | UEFA | 第3100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 8 | 🇧🇷BrazilBRA | C | CONMEBOL | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 9 | 🇨🇦CanadaCAN | B | CONCACAF | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 10 | 🇨🇮Côte d'IvoireCIV | E | CAF | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 11 | 🇨🇩Congo DRCOD | K | CAF | 第3100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 12 | 🇨🇴ColombiaCOL | K | CONMEBOL | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 13 | 🇨🇻Cabo VerdeCPV | H | CAF | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 14 | 🇭🇷CroatiaCRO | L | UEFA | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 15 | 🇨🇼CuraçaoCUW | E | CONCACAF | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 16 | 🇨🇿CzechiaCZE | A | UEFA | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 17 | 🇪🇨EcuadorECU | E | CONMEBOL | 第3100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 18 | 🇪🇬EgyptEGY | G | CAF | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 19 | 🏴EnglandENG | L | UEFA | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 20 | 🇫🇷FranceFRA | I | UEFA | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 21 | 🇩🇪GermanyGER | E | UEFA | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 22 | 🇬🇭GhanaGHA | L | CAF | 第3100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 23 | 🇭🇹HaitiHAI | C | CONCACAF | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 24 | 🇮🇷IR IranIRN | G | AFC | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 25 | 🇮🇶IraqIRQ | I | AFC | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 26 | 🇯🇴JordanJOR | J | AFC | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 27 | 🇯🇵JapanJPN | F | AFC | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 28 | 🇰🇷Korea RepublicKOR | A | AFC | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 29 | 🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaKSA | H | AFC | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 30 | 🇲🇦MoroccoMAR | C | CAF | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 31 | 🇲🇽MexicoMEX | A | CONCACAF | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 32 | 🇳🇱NetherlandsNED | F | UEFA | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 33 | 🇳🇴NorwayNOR | I | UEFA | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 34 | 🇳🇿New ZealandNZL | G | OFC | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 35 | 🇵🇦PanamaPAN | L | CONCACAF | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 36 | 🇵🇾ParaguayPAR | D | CONMEBOL | 第3100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 37 | 🇵🇹PortugalPOR | K | UEFA | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 38 | 🇶🇦QatarQAT | B | AFC | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 39 | 🇿🇦South AfricaRSA | A | CAF | 第2100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 40 | 🏴ScotlandSCO | C | UEFA | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 41 | 🇸🇳SenegalSEN | I | CAF | 第3100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 42 | 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSUI | B | UEFA | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 43 | 🇸🇪SwedenSWE | F | UEFA | 第3100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 44 | 🇹🇳TunisiaTUN | F | CAF | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 45 | 🇹🇷TürkiyeTUR | D | UEFA | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 46 | 🇺🇾UruguayURU | H | CONMEBOL | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 47 | 🇺🇸USAUSA | D | CONCACAF | 第1100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |
| 48 | 🇺🇿UzbekistanUZB | K | AFC | 第10.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |