Generated at
07/27/2026, 12:00 AM EDT
Probability Board
All-Team Odds
All 48 teams on one board: contenders, long shots, and daily Monte Carlo movement. Odds update every day at 00:00 ET, and locked results feed the next simulation.
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0
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DAY DAY WORLD CUP · 2026-07-27 00:00 ET
104 MATCH PREDICTION WALL
The latest model fills every fixture from group scorelines to the projected champion. Green means confirmed by actual results; black cards are still model territory.
Group stage72
Knockout path32
Round of 32
M7406/29, 04:30 PM
Actual · PAR advanced M7706/30, 05:00 PM
Actual · FRA advanced M7306/28, 03:00 PM
Actual · CAN advanced M7506/29, 09:00 PM
Actual · MAR advanced M8307/02, 07:00 PM
Actual · POR advanced M8407/02, 03:00 PM
Actual · ESP advanced M8107/01, 08:00 PM
Actual · USA advanced M8207/01, 04:00 PM
Actual · BEL advanced Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
M10107/14, 03:00 PM
Actual · ESP advanced Final / Third
Semifinals
M10207/15, 03:00 PM
Actual · ARG advanced Quarterfinals
Round of 16
Round of 32
M7606/29, 01:00 PM
Actual · BRA advanced M7806/30, 01:00 PM
Actual · NOR advanced M7906/30, 09:00 PM
Actual · MEX advanced M8007/01, 12:00 PM
Actual · ENG advanced M8607/03, 06:00 PM
Actual · ARG advanced M8807/03, 02:00 PM
Actual · EGY advanced M8507/02, 11:00 PM
Actual · SUI advanced M8707/03, 09:30 PM
Actual · COL advanced Projected
Group ranking prediction
Projected order for every group using first-place, second-place, and third-place advancement probabilities from the latest simulation.
Group A
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇲🇽Mexico | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇿🇦South Africa | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇨🇿Czechia | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| 4 | 🇰🇷Korea Republic | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group B
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇨🇭Switzerland | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇨🇦Canada | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇶🇦Qatar | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group C
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇧🇷Brazil | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇲🇦Morocco | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇭🇹Haiti | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| 4 | 🏴Scotland | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group D
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇺🇸USA | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇦🇺Australia | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇵🇾Paraguay | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇹🇷Türkiye | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group E
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇩🇪Germany | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇪🇨Ecuador | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇨🇼Curaçao | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group F
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇳🇱Netherlands | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇯🇵Japan | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇸🇪Sweden | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇹🇳Tunisia | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group G
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇧🇪Belgium | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇪🇬Egypt | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇮🇷IR Iran | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| 4 | 🇳🇿New Zealand | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group H
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇪🇸Spain | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇨🇻Cabo Verde | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
| 4 | 🇺🇾Uruguay | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group I
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇫🇷France | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇳🇴Norway | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇸🇳Senegal | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇮🇶Iraq | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group J
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇦🇷Argentina | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇦🇹Austria | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇩🇿Algeria | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇯🇴Jordan | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group K
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇨🇴Colombia | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇵🇹Portugal | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇨🇩Congo DR | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇺🇿Uzbekistan | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Group L
| # | Team | Top 2 | 3rd adv. | Exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🏴England | 100.0% | 0.00% | 1.00 |
| 2 | 🇭🇷Croatia | 100.0% | 0.00% | 2.00 |
| 3 | 🇬🇭Ghana | 0.00% | 100.0% | 3.00 |
| 4 | 🇵🇦Panama | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.00 |
Best Thirds
Best third-place prediction
Teams most likely to advance through the third-place path. The top eight line is the current projected ticket zone.
All Teams
Filtered odds board
Sorted by title probability. The bar shows championship odds, not inflated confidence; the longer it gets, the more the model is willing to take the blame first.
| # | Team | Group | Confederation | Main path | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 🇭🇷CroatiaCRO | L | UEFA | 2nd100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 100.0% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |